Good question! When it first happened, I heard about it but didn't pay much attention to the incident. Then, I heard reports that one sailor reported that the cargo ship was running without transponder signals, lights, or radio contact before hitting them. That piqued my interest, and I intended to look into it more, but it slipped from my mind and I forgot about it.
Then someone asked about it, so I dug into it a bit. What I found was quite interesting...
The official story:
Both ships were travelling on a parallel course, when at 1:30am for some reason they veered into each other and collided. The cargo ship then continued on it's course for about a half hour until the autopilot was turned off and they turned around. They turned around and returned to the scene at around 2:20am to see what they hit, called the coast guard, then returned on their voyage.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Fitzgerald_and_MV_ACX_Crystal_collision
Pretty simple, right? Just another mistake made by someone and two ships collide. Except that the details don't fit the description...
First, The Facts:
Reading the online articles about it, the theories of what happened are all over the place! From dereliction of duty, to the captain having sex on the bridge, to EMP attacks, drones, etc... The ideas were all over the place, I couldn't really pin down any particular theory as being plausible (although some parts fit), so I started looking at the known facts instead.
The photographic evidence:
First, look at the damage to the ACX Crystal. Note how there is minimal damage, only on the port side of the bow and possibly the protruding part under the waterline. No visible damage anywhere else.
Now look at the damage to the Fitzgerald. Again, no damage outside of that one impact area. The area impacted most was the communications center and the berthing rooms (below the waterline).
So, no damage to areas outside of the impact zone, and the evidence shows an almost 90 degree angle of impact.
This immediately rules out the official story of two ships travelling side-by-side and one veering into the path of the other. If that were the case, there would be a much more angled impact zone, and dents/scrapes along the entire side of both ships. If, for some reason, the Fitzgerald had actually made it to a 90 degree angle in front of ACX Crystal before being hit, but was still moving, you again would have had scraping indications all along the sides of the ships from the forward momentum.
So, all indications from the damage photos indicates that the impact was done while the Fitzgerald was not moving.
This means that the story of the cargo ship not noticing an impact is also thrown out the window because the ship would have had to come to a complete stop and back up in order to free itself.
Dead in the water?
So, why was the Fitzgerald dead in the water in a busy shipping lane, and why was it hit?
First, we have to take into consideration of what the Fitzgerald is.
The ship is a Arleigh Burke-class destroyer that employs the latest AEGIS system. This is a highly sophisticated combination of active and passive sonar and radar arrays that map out everything around the ship, and maintains constant contact with the other ships that are part of this system to keep tract of EVERY moving thing in the area.
So, again, why was it dead in the water and why didn't it move out of the way? That ship could easily run circles around that freighter... The only plausible answer is because it "wasn't able" to move.
Didn't see it there?
The argument about the Fitzgerald not noticing the giant incoming ship is also extremely unfeasible. In addition to the massive tracking system that tracks everything possible around them, they also have personnel constantly posted on lookout duty all around the ship. There is pretty much no way they didn't see it coming.
Out of contact?
Looking back at the other reports, we also see no reported communications from the ship during this time period. Like. None. None at all. In fact, the first report of the incident came in at 2:25am, from the ACX Crystal, who contacted the Japanese Coast Guard and reported that they had just hit someone.
So, we have a ship that has the most advanced tracking system available, one that is able to track pretty much everything (below the water, on the water, and above the water), with dozens of communication systems available to them, sitting dead in the water, with no radio contact.
What does that imply? A total and complete power outage. One that affected every system on board, shutting down the radar, the engines, the automated defense system, the lights, the radios, the personal devices, etc.... Everything.
What can cause that? Well.. The first thing that comes to mind is an EMP pulse. But, warships are built to withstand such pulses. So, while not totally off the table, it does make it look a bit unlikely.
That leaves us with the new technology coming out. The equipment based on the Magrev technology, which the Russians based their Khibiny system off of. This is known to have the ability to shut down any electronic system available.
You know, the same system they used on the USS Donald Cook back in 2014?
How did they do it?
So... Based off the facts I was able to acquire, and the idea that the ship was dead in the water for
some reason, I set off to determine how it was disabled.
I finally located this video, which was straight and to the point. A simple replay of the AIS system used to track all ships.
Obviously, the military ships are not part of this system, so they do not show on this map. But, by tracking the time, location, direction, and speed of the ACX Crystal, I was able to get a good idea of how it all went down.
Here is a screenshot from the video, which summarizes it's movements. I added numbers as reference points.
The ACX Crystal enters from the southwest, on a ENE track at about 18 knots. Obviously on autopilot.
At point 1, at approximately 1:30am it slows down to 11 knots and makes a slight course change. Then it makes a sharp right turn, while maintaining speed.
At point 2 it maintains speed and makes another abrupt turn and stays on that course for a bit.
At point 3 it appears to go back onto autopilot, and the ship resumes it's course and direction at about 15 knots.
At point 4, almost a half hour later, it slows slightly and makes a sweeping turn to return to the area.
At point 5, around 2:20am it fixes on an exact course at 8 knots. No further AIS data was available for a short time.
At point 6, the AIS data reappeared, with the ship pointed in another direction and travelling at 2 knots, indicating it probably had come to a complete stop and then resumed.
After meandering around at 4 knots for awhile, it again came to a complete stop at point 7. It then turns completely around and resumes it's original course.
At point 8 it appears to return to autopilot and head for port at 15 knots.
So, what did I determine from all this?
After reviewing the evidence, and cherry picking information from the various theories posted online, my theory is that while the two ships were on a parallel course, they were not going the same direction as was stated. They were instead heading toward each other. The USS Fitzgerald is based in Yokosuka, so for it to be in that location is perfectly plausible.
At point 1 the cargo ship could see the warship coming and turned so that its stern was pointed at the warship. This indicates there was something mounted in the stern (or in a cargo container in the back) that had to be aimed at the warship.
At point 2, the course was corrected to allow for a second shot at a target moving SSW.
This was when the ship was hit with some sort of devices that shut down everything on the ship. At that point, the ship was dead in the water, unable to contact anyone for help, not even able to wake their sleeping shipmates to respond to the attack. Heck, at that point, they probably didn't think they were under attack. With nothing other than merchant vessels around, there was no indication anything was amiss other than a complete power outage.
So... The cargo ship continued on course, but then got ordered to turn around and attempt a sinking.
They returned to the scene and lined themselves up for a ramming, turned off all radios and lights (which is why the AIS data was missing), hitting in almost the exact part of the ship to inflict the most damage.
About five minutes later, they realized that the ship would probably not sink, so they radioed in their report that they had just hit someone (an almost perfect cover story). They then spent a little time in the area while talking to the coast guard and disposing of evidence, and then resumed course after getting permission.
Additional Points and Questions:
- An impact at point 1 was highly improbably. AIS data was conclusive that the ship barely slowed down during that time. This doesn't match the damage photos, which showed it would have had to come to a complete stop.
- The dead stop at point 6 was probably the point of impact. All reports agreed that that was the impact location. But, since the ship was hit on the starboard side, the warship must have been travelling southwest at the time.
- The dead stop at point 7 was most likely where they offloaded the weapon and personnel.
- The EMP-style attack is a bit puzzling, as most communications were gone, but they were able to use satellite phones later on. All of their other communication devices were still down, so it implies permanent damage instead of a temporary outage.
- The angles at points 1 and 2 indicates that whatever they used had to be lined up to point at the warship.
- A drone big enough to carry an EMP able to do this would have been detected by their self defense system, so it implies it was most likely a directed energy weapon. Is there any other device that could have done it?
- The injuries to the captain are a bit puzzling, as he supposedly got thrown out of his bunk by the impact. However, by that time, almost an hour had passed. To not awaken your sleeping captain within an hour of a complete power outage is a bit unheard of. This information does not fit.
- Was it an inside job?
But why though?
This was most likely a failed false-flag attack. If they had succeeded in sinking the ship, it probably would have been blamed on China or Russia in an attempt to get an armed conflict going. It was too big of a target to plausibly blame on ISIS.
But the Russians and Chinese have no reason to do such a thing. I could see them disabling the ship as a show of superior technology (like with the USS Cook), but the ramming is not their style. Nor would it help them in any way.
This leaves the dark cabal as the most likely culprits. They are the only ones that would stand to gain anything from such an attack.
....Again, this is only my personal theory, what I came up with as the most likely scenario based on the evidence I was able to uncover. I am always willing to change this theory if new information becomes available.
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